Using the ZiPS projection system, a Monte Carlo simulation and a few scary-sounding bits of math stuff, the 2012 season was simmed a million times to see which teams projected to come out on top.
For each team we've provided their projected record, as well as their odds of winning the division, making the playoffs and winning the World Series. Additionally, you'll find each club's 95th- and fifth-percentile projected win totals, which is basically a best- and worst-case scenario for everyone.
Some predictions will end up looking prescient and some decidedly less so, but part of the fun of the baseball season is watching players and teams shred all the expectations.
Today, we'll project and analyze the American League divisions. On Friday, we'll tackle the National League.
American League East
The AL East should look quite similar to what we've seen in recent seasons: a three-way battle between three of the elite teams, the Toronto Blue Jays hanging around .500 and the Baltimore Orioles hoping that baseball's next structural change doesn't involve a soccer-style relegation. Michael Pineda's apparent exchange of mph on his fastball for inches on his waist notwithstanding, the New York Yankees addressed the bottom-of-the-rotation weakness more aggressively than last season. While the team is old, the Yankees have a strong case for being the best team in the division.
In Boston, Andrew Bailey is a suitable replacement for Jonathan Papelbon, but Cody Ross and Ryan Sweeney are likely complementary players at best. Believe it or not, the Tampa Bay Rays actually spent more in the free-agent market this winter than either the Boston Red Sox or Yankees did. And while he's not going to be the force he was several years ago, Carlos Pena is not much of a risk at $7 million.
Toronto continues to have the misfortune of playing in the AL East. Big, long-awaited improvements from Kyle Drabek and Brett Cecil could make the Jays relevant, but it's a very tough division to play in. In the NL Central, I'd be tempted to call Toronto the favorite, but not here. The O's, after having learned in 2011 that you can't simply declare yourselves a .500 team, are mostly looking for upside here, such as a recovered Brian Matusz. They'll have a high pick in the 2013 draft.
American League Central
The AL Central looks like it may be the worst race in baseball, with computers and flesh-and-blood alike seeing the Detroit Tigers as the overwhelming favorite. The Tigers aren't so deep that a poorly placed injury or two won't leave an opening for one of the other teams, but the smart money is on them. The Cleveland Indians competed last year ahead of schedule, and they have an outside shot of giving the Tigers a run. Ubaldo Jimenez and Justin Masterson are a solid 1-2, and there's enough upside in players like Grady Sizemore (should he ever get healthy) to make them the best bet to take advantage if the Tigers stumble.
The Chicago White Sox continue to walk the awkward line between rebuilding and competing, now doing neither all that well. While the trades of Sergio Santos and Carlos Quentin initially suggested the team was going the rebuilding route, they also inked John Danks to a long-term contract. If Adam Dunn and Alex Rios don't bounce back, the White Sox probably win 75 games and the GM in charge of the White Sox next offseason won't be current GM Kenny Williams.
The Kansas City Royals are regularly graduating players to the majors from their farm system, and while their offense looks better than it has in a long time, the pitching hasn't improved at the same rate and the rotation is not yet a positive contributor. The Minnesota Twins have a similar lack of pitching, and even if Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau make big comebacks, their starting pitching isn't much better than Kansas City's.
American League West
The AL West is all Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels, leaving little opening for either the Seattle Mariners or the rebuilding Oakland Athletics to be competitive this year. The Angels may worry about the end of the blockbuster Albert Pujols contract, but at this point, he's an MVP candidate, and that C.J. Wilson fellow ain't too shabby. The Rangers replaced Wilson with the best Nippon Professional Baseball pitcher to come overseas, and were good enough to earn their two World Series trips, even if neither ended with a Ranger proclaiming his upcoming trip to Disney World.
Seattle and Oakland don't have the firepower to compete with the teams at the top of their division, and they'll spend their seasons continuing to build for the future. Oakland's offense is a ragtag bunch, similar to that in an '80s movie (without a happy ending), but Tom Milone and Brad Peacock will provide pleasant surprises to a pretty decent rotation.
Dustin Ackley and Jesus Montero are both in Seattle's lineup, and the Mariners continuing to find the offense to match their stable of pitching prospects will put the team back on the road to relevance, but not in 2012.
Dan Szymborski covers baseball for ESPN Insider. He has written about the sport since 2001 for the Baseball Think Factory, where he is an editor. He is also the developer of the ZiPS Projection system. You can find his ESPN archives here and follow him on Twitter here.