It didn't seem like it at the time, but the pain and embarrassment LeBron James suffered in his 2010 NBA Finals loss to the Dallas Mavericks was a basketball blessing cloaked in heartache.
Humbled -- and the butt of jokes -- James looked within and without to find the answers. He made a conscious decision to shoot fewer 3s and worked with Hakeem Olajuwon to improve in the post, a place where he despised playing over the first eight years of his career.
Obviously, the answers came. Last season, James put together one of the most productive and awe-inspiring runs in recent memory, winning his third regular-season MVP award, his first NBA title and the NBA Finals MVP -- all before topping it off with terrific play in leading Team USA to an Olympic gold medal.
Now, the inevitable question: Has LeBron James "the champion" finally arrived, or has LeBron James merely saved face? And has he possibly reached his peak?
If the champion has truly arrived, last season's ring should be the first of at least two over a three-year span, and perhaps several more over the remainder of his career. If the champion has arrived, the inevitable comparisons to Michael Jordan will not only gain steam, but legitimacy.
But if James merely saved face, while he'll still be recognized as a champion, it might be as one who fortunately -- and barely -- escaped universal ridicule with one magnificent tour de force that he was unable to maintain. Fair or not, some will say the LeBron James who put together spectacular individual seasons but failed to consistently win rings was the real LeBron James. They will say the LeBron James who wrecked Kevin Durant and the upstart Oklahoma City Thunder in the summer of 2012 was an aberration.
The point is, the scrutiny hasn't ended. Sure, James always will be a champion, and in the eyes of most sane observers, he is an all-time top-10 player. But we're in the "Ring or Bust" era, when nothing and no one gets their due unless they hang lots of banners. And with Jordan having six rings, and Magic Johnson and Kobe Bryant each with five, James, arguably the best perimeter player not named Jordan, certainly needs more than one.
It won't be easy, though. In fact, winning it all this season would seem to be harder than it has been the past two seasons. The 2010-11 Dallas Mavericks don't compare to what the Los Angeles Lakers will send out on the floor this season. And logic says the young Thunder will only get better after being smacked around by the Heat in June.
If the Lakers win the West (which is far from guaranteed), the Heat will have a world of trouble dealing with Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol. That's not to mention how improved the Boston Celtics, who gave the Heat a scare last season, appear to be.
Moreover, while Dwyane Wade is still an elite player, there's little question that his best years are behind him. Wade, who always seems to be besieged by nagging injuries, will turn 31 in January. And while its gracious of Chris Bosh to play center, he's far too light to contend with the twin towers the Lakers are now sporting.
But how much of that rationale will be applied if James and the Heat fail to win it this season? Probably little. Instead, James might unfairly be blamed if the Heat fall to the Lakers. If they fall to OKC or Boston, the blame could be legitimate.
Has LeBron James peaked?
James was rightly named by ESPN.com's #NBArank project as the No. 1 player on the planet. However, Basketball-Reference.com's Neil Paine offers some evidence that argues James might have already hit his peak. In fact, according to Paine, last season James wasn't even as good as he'd been in 2008-09 and 2009-10 (his PER, win shares/48 minutes, and stat plus-minus were all down from his last two seasons in Cleveland).
Using players' yearly statistical plus-minus changes, the chart below indicates the average player hits his prime at age 26 and begins a downward slope by 27. By that rationale, James, who turns 28 in December, is due for some slippage.
However, James is far from the average player, so let's not shackle him with the same chains that bind other players. Look at Bryant, who, like James, is a physical freak and workout fiend who came straight out of high school. At 27 and 28, Kobe had fabulous individual seasons, averaging 35 points and 31 points, respectively. And he averaged about 27 points from ages 29-33.
With the improvements in diet, travel, equipment and training, players such as Bryant and James -- who take tremendous care of their bodies (and who already have won the genetic lottery) -- can't be measured by the same metrics as say, Andre Iguodala.
When I sat down with Olajuwon a few weeks ago, he told me James should actually get better. Olajuwon, who taught James his moves last summer, says that as far as post play goes, James only touched the tip of the iceberg last season. He expects James to be far more comfortable in the post this season (and in following seasons), and thinks his excellence in the post and on the perimeter will make him even better.
Call me crazy, but I'll side with Olajuwon on this one.
LeBron in control
James should also benefit mentally from finally getting over the title hump that dogged him for most of his career. Not only did he look like a different, more determined and more cutthroat player in the Finals, but he also looked that way on Team USA. Remember, it was James -- not Kevin Durant, Bryant or Carmelo Anthony -- who took over a close gold-medal game against Spain by sinking a 3-pointer and then powering in for a dunk in the final three minutes.
There's no longer any doubt that the Heat are James' team now -- in the locker room, in the public and in Wade's eyes. With Wade encouraging his teammate to take over and play to his potential, James is no longer concerned about taking over his buddy's team. James should play with more assertiveness than he has in the past. Indeed, it was the type of assertiveness that was on display in the NBA Finals.
The LeBron James who was mocked for passing up a potential game-winning 3-pointer in the NBA All-Star Game appears to be gone, replaced by an assassin who's done deferring to teammates. If that's the case -- and I believe it is -- the sky's the limit for the man with the Karl Malone body and Scottie Pippen skills. A better-than-ever LeBron James should lead the Heat back to the championship, leaving all opponents and doubters in his wake.