Projecting NBA playoff races

We're a little more than four weeks away from the end of the NBA regular season, but as the league enters the final month of the schedule, plenty remains up in the air.

There's a cluster of teams vying for home-court advantage in the East, while in the West a similar logjam is playing out at the bottom for the seventh and eighth seeds.

With the help of a thousand simulations of the remainder of the regular season (based on my "true talent" ratings), let's set the odds for how key races could play out.

Who claims the top seed in the East?