With one month left until the conclusion of the NBL23 regular season, there are eight teams in a battle for the six team play-in tournament.
While history suggests there is usually separation between the top six and the rest at this time of the year, the run to the postseason looks set to be a historic roller coast ride to the finish line.
Here's a team-by-team guide of the run home for each club and some notes on what's going well and what should be a concern for fans hoping to see their team make a deep postseason push.
1. SYDNEY KINGS (13-5)
The run home:
Vs. South East Melbourne
Vs. Perth
At Brisbane
Vs. Illawarra
Vs. New Zealand
At Tasmania
Vs. South East Melbourne
At Adelaide
At Perth
What's going well: Giving up just 102.9 points per 100 possessions, the defending champions hold the title of No. 1 ranked defence in the league. Opposition teams are shooting just 53% at the rim against the Kings, which falls 6% below league average. You could make a case for Xavier Cooks, Justin Simon and Tim Soares to be a best defensive player finalist, which says a lot for the depth of the squad.
What's a concern: Not a lot, though they would love to see Dejan Vasiljevic heat up on the road to the postseason for some icing on the cake. Receiving added attention this season as a focal point of the offence, Vasiljevic is averaging 12.5 points per game on 36.9% from the floor and 29.1% from long range. Vasiljevic is contributing in multiple ways, but if he catches light, it could be over for the rest.
2. NEW ZEALAND BREAKERS (11-6)
The run home:
Vs. Perth
At Adelaide
At Perth
Vs. Melbourne
Vs. Cairns
Vs. Illawarra
At Sydney
At Brisbane
Vs. Melbourne
At Illawarra
At Brisbane
What's going well: Most things. The Breakers currently rank second for both offence and defence as they have for much of the season, in what is a clear indication of their contender status. Next Star and projected first round draft pick Rayan Rupert is also slated to return from a broken wrist this week, with 11 games left in the regular season to shake off the rust.
What's a concern: A concern due to the unknown is the fact that New Zealand have played just one game since December 8 after an untimely COVID outbreak in the squad. Not only has this significantly halted the Breakers' momentum, but it now means they will cram the final 11 regular season games into a 32-day window -- essentially a game in every three days.
3. CAIRNS TAIPANS (12-7)
The run home:
At Brisbane
Vs. South East Melbourne
Vs. Illawarra
At New Zealand
Vs. Tasmania
Vs. South East Melbourne
Vs. Brisbane
Vs. Adelaide
At Perth
What's going well: The Taipans are a top-three defence deep into the season which was tough to predict given the roster turnover in the offseason. Opponents hold a TO% of 16 which is the second highest mark in the league and often fuels a Snakes outfit that likes to score in transition to alleviate its halfcourt offence struggles. Which brings us to...
What's a concern: The only team scoring more inefficiently than Cairns in the halfcourt thus far is the 2-17 Illawarra Hawks. Head coach Adam Forde has flagged the offensive battle for his squad at times, with the high volume three-point shooting brand often feast or famine. Nearly 45% of the Taipans shot attempts are from three which is the highest mark in the league, despite Bul Kuol being the only player on the roster knocking down more than 36% of his attempts.
4. SOUTH EAST MELBOURNE PHOENIX. (12-9)
The run home:
At Sydney
At Cairns
Vs. Brisbane
At Tasmania
Vs. Perth
Vs. Cairns
At Sydney
What's going well: The one constant has been Mitch Creek. In a battle with Bryce Cotton for the scoring title, Creek is pouring in 23.3 points per game on 51/35/79 shooting. He's yet to miss a game despite carrying a number of niggles throughout. Without him, this season may have already been written off.
What's a concern: Different year, same injury toll. The Phoenix starters have been well utilised when healthy, with the five-man group of Creek, Trey Kell III, Alan Williams, Ryan Broekhoff and Gary Browne (317 possessions) joining the Sydney starting five (318 possessions) as the only groupings to be on the floor for more than 205 possessions in NBL23. That's a remarkable number given the injury toll endured, but in their time together on the floor, the Phoenix crew have outscored their opposition by 19.1 points per 100. Together, they are a contender. Now Phoenix fans cross their fingers.
5. PERTH WILDCATS (10-8)
The run home:
At New Zealand
At Sydney
Vs. New Zealand
Vs. Adelaide
Vs. Sydney
At South East Melbourne
Vs. Illawarra
At Tasmania
Vs. Cairns
Vs. Sydney
What's going well: First-year head coach John Rillie made a change to the starting five and the offence has been sizzling ever since. Of the eleven five-man groups to play at least 120 possessions, the Perth starting collection of Bryce Cotton, Luke Travers, Corey Webster, Brady Manek and TaShawn Thomas holds by far the best offensive rating (128.1 points per 100). Incorporating Tai Webster at this late stage in the season will be interesting, but adding another weapon is noteworthy.
What's a concern: Nine of the last eleven champions have held a top-two defence. The other two finished top four. Currently, the Wildcats rank ninth, giving up just 0.1 points per 100 possessions fewer than Illawarra. Their 62.1 DRB% confirms the much publicised struggles on the glass. Teams are shooting 64% against the Wildcats at the rim, which sits 5% above league average. The defensive stuff has been a concern all year, but it may be too late to turn around. The Wildcats are leaning all the way in to scoring and will have to defy history to salute once again.
6. TASMANIA JACKJUMPERS (11-9)
The run home:
Vs. Melbourne
At Illawarra
Vs. Adelaide
Vs. South East Melbourne
At Cairns
Vs. Sydney
Vs. Perth
At Illawarra
What's going well: Milton Doyle as a go-to scorer. The import wing has been sizzling from within the arc, finishing 59.6% of his 136 two-point attempts in NBL23. To break that down, Doyle is 61% at the rim on 76 attempts, 69% in floater range on 35 attempts and 44% from the midrange. When things go off tilt, throw it to Milt.
What's a concern: More of a curiosity than a concern. The JackJumpers once again hold a top-four defence, as they did last season on the road to the Grand Final. One noticeable difference is the opponent three-point shooting. Last season opponents shot a woeful 202-for-717 (28%) against Tasmania. This season, they have bumped that mark up to 161-for-453 (36%), which sits 3% above NBL23 average and the second highest mark in the league. In a small sample that is the NBL season, shooting variance and luck can play a part, but that is a rather large jump.
7. ADELAIDE 36ers (10-9)
The run home:
Vs. Illawarra
Vs. New Zealand
At Tasmania
At Perth
At Brisbane
Vs. Melbourne
At Cairns
Vs. Sydney
At Melbourne
What's going well: Paint offence. The 36ers are shooting a sizzling 64% at the rim, rank second in the league for offensive rebound percentage and are in the top half of the league for free-throw rate. Now, they have added the perimeter play of Ian Clark, which they hope will round out a well-balanced offensive roster.
What's a concern: The entire season has felt a little off kilter for Adelaide, from the late start due to NBLxNBA preseason games, to parting ways with Craig Randall II, to regular starting lineup changes, to now incorporating Clark. The 36ers have just never felt settled. Currently outside the six with nine games to play, there is little room left for slip ups.
8. MELBOURNE UNITED (10-12)
The run home:
At Tasmania
At New Zealand
At Brisbane
At Adelaide
At New Zealand
Vs. Adelaide
What's going well: Melbourne have won five of their last seven games. In that stretch they rank fourth in offence, third in defence and third in overall net rating. Rayjon Tucker is averaging over 20 points per game in that stretch, Isaac Humphries and Marcus Lee form one of the best rim protecting duos in the league and Chris Goulding is letting it fly at will.
What's a concern: The fact they are three games back in the loss column of a play-in position with six games to go, five of which will come on the road. A frustrating season looks set to leave United fans wondering what could have been with this squad.
Data for this story was sourced from SpatialJam.com, jordanmcnbl.com and realgm.com