Besides the obvious goal of winning a Super Bowl, Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck has made it clear that his No. 1 goal in his fourth season is to cut down on turnovers. Luck threw 16 interceptions and lost six fumbles in 2014, and those 22 giveaways ranked second-worst in the league, behind only Jay Cutler (24).
Looked at in a vacuum, that number might have easily been higher or lower. That's typical of turnovers, one of the least consistent stats on a year-to-year basis in the NFL. Interceptions are especially hard to predict thanks to the random paths of tipped balls and the guilty hands of many defenders. Since 2007, the year-to-year correlation coefficient (explained here) for interception rate was just 0.15, which is fairly weak.
Luck's 16 INTs in 2014 ranked sixth most in the league, and we're careful not to read too much into that number. Our adjusted interceptions metric -- which removes flukey INTs (Hail Mary throws, dropped passes) and adds in dropped INTs and picks broken up by the offensive player -- has a better year-to-year correlation at 0.30, which still isn't strong, but is double that of regular interception rate.
And when you look at Luck's first three seasons through that prism, it's clear he's been, well, quite lucky to not throw more picks in his first three seasons.
We should point out that, after having a whopping 14 dropped interceptions as a rookie, Luck has cut down considerably on that number in recent years. Still, his 21 adjusted INTs were the second-worst mark in the league. For some perspective, the other five top-tier quarterbacks in ESPN Insider's 2015 NFL QB Tier Rankings -- Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees and Peyton Manning -- had an average of 14 adjusted interceptions in 2014.
What makes Luck's NFL career arc so interesting is that he rarely turned the ball over when playing in a run-heavy offense at Stanford. He only had three games with multiple interceptions, and he attempted more than 36 passes just four times. But once the Colts placed him in the role of savior, Luck blew past those numbers in no time. He's thrown 37.8 passes per game, currently the second-highest figure in NFL history. That heavy reliance on Luck in a vertical offense would seem to be the culprit for his turnover problems.
Except it's not -- or at least it wasn't last season.
As you can see, Luck's average interception traveled 11.4 yards beyond the line of scrimmage in 2014, the lowest figure in the league for QBs with at least eight picks. This is a huge change from Luck's days with Bruce Arians in 2012, when his interceptions were coming nearly 20 yards down the field.
What happened last year?
Luck's INTs were a mixed bag: seven of the 16 were tipped off the hands of a player different from the one who ultimately made the pick. (This does not include a controversial fourth-quarter play on Monday Night Football against the Eagles in Week 2 when it appeared T.Y. Hilton was pulled down without a penalty while Malcolm Jenkins intercepted the pass.) But he also got away with what was very nearly a pick-six against Cincinnati and had some really close calls against the Texans on the road.
There's no perfect solution here -- that's part of the problem of evaluating something as volatile as interceptions -- but the easiest way for Luck to play more efficiently is for the Colts to take some pressure off their QB.
Game reviews show Luck's 13 fumbles were mostly the result of holding on to the ball too long -- trying to make something happen when nothing was there. And since 2012, Luck has 18 turnovers when trailing by at least 17 points (includes playoffs); the next closest quarterback over that span is Matt Cassel (11). Luck has thrown an incredible 95 more passes in such situations than any other quarterback
With changes along the offensive line and the addition of Frank Gore, there's hope that Luck will finally have a running game in 2015. Over the last two years, Indianapolis running backs not named Trent Richardson have rushed for 1,657 yards at 4.7 yards per carry. A full season of that would really help Luck's turnover total.
The 2014 Colts also led the league in dropped passes (34, by our count), but 18 of those drops came from players no longer on the team. The receiving core is loaded with the additions of Andre Johnson and Phillip Dorsett to go along with T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief, Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener.
Luck may throw more questionable passes than we would like to see, but he is still growing as a quarterback. Remember: Peyton Manning did not reach machine-like efficiency until his sixth year. Just as it takes years to become a surgeon in the operating room, it usually takes time to become a surgeon on the football field.