It's Week 3 and already I'm looking through the New England Patriots' schedule to see what stands between this angry bunch and another undefeated season. They aren't losing at home. They aren't losing at Indianapolis in Week 6 (please!). They could lose at Denver in Week 12, and they've got a couple of AFC East road games to close the season. But the fact is, this Patriots offense is outperforming the 2007 version that carried New England to the first 16-0 regular season in NFL history.
Be afraid, rest of the NFL. Be very afraid. The numbers are scary good.
Who can forget the 2007 Patriots going for it on fourth down from the Washington 7-yard line while leading the Redskins 38-0? Yeah, they finished that drive with a Tom Brady touchdown pass. Yeah, Bill Belichick was serious when he asked, "What do you want us to do, kick a field goal? It's 38-0. It's fourth down. We're just out there playing."
Spygate allegations swirled that season, creating the impression New England was on a spiteful mission to not just win, but win big. If NFL commissioner Roger Goodell had gotten his way in the Deflategate debacle this year, Tom Brady would have been serving a four-game suspension instead of completing 12 of 13 passes in the second half against Jacksonville while leading by at least 20 points.
Since 2007, the Patriots have opted for pass plays 39.4 percent of the time when leading by double figures in fourth quarters, the third-highest rate in the league and well above the 30.3 percent rate for the rest of the NFL. That doesn't mean the Patriots revel in running up the score, but like Bruce Arians in Arizona and some others, they're not going to let up, either. They're just out there playing, after all.
On Sunday, Brady completed 24 of 25 pass attempts inside the numbers, the highest single-game completion rate in 10 years of charting such throws according to ESPN Stats & Information (minimum 20 passes). That sent me into our data warehouse for a look at how this Patriots offense stacks up with the 2007 version. Turns out it stacks up quite favorably so far.
The 2007 Patriots set single-season records for touchdowns (75) and points (589), marks since broken by the Denver Broncos in 2013. The current Patriots have 119 total points and 14 offensive touchdowns, five more points and one more offensive touchdown than they had at this point during their 16-0 season.
The 2015 team leads the 2007 version for offensive expected points added (EPA), a cumulative metric measuring how the expectation for scoring changes after each play. It's a more precise and comprehensive way to measure performance by a specific unit because it knows an 8-yard gain on third-and-7 carries more value than, say, a 9-yard gain on fourth-and-10. EPA also gives credit for plays such as the 52-yard penalty for pass interference New England drew against the Jaguars on first-and-20 in the third quarter Sunday. That penalty added 3.0 expected points for the Patriots' offense, which finished the game plus-31.9, the ninth-best single-game performance on record (since 2006).
The 2007 Patriots had one superior offensive EPA game, a plus-36.8 effort during a 56-10 victory at Buffalo, while finishing with a negative EPA just once (minus-3.3 in a 20-10 victory over the New York Jets in Week 15).
The current Patriots offense was plus-18.1 against Pittsburgh in the opener and plus-5.8 on the road against Buffalo. The Bills have led the NFL in defensive EPA since the start of last season, but they are a combined minus-23.9 in two home games against New England over that span. San Diego is the only other team to light up the Bills to that degree since the start of 2014.
The chart below taps into ESPN's 10-year EPA warehouse for a look at the five best per-game averages for an offense. The 2015 Patriots and 2015 Cardinals hold the top two spots, followed by the 2007 Patriots (Arizona deserves its own analysis -- and recently got one).
It's early, no doubt, but this is also Brady and Belichick we're talking about, so no projecting is required. The 3-0 Patriots are not the 3-0 Falcons or 3-0 Bengals. We know they're legit. We know how good this offense is going to be with Brady behind center, Rob Gronkowski in the lineup, a functionally effective offensive line and a head coach willing to keep pushing even when game outcomes appear decided.
One potential hiccup? New England's defense, which had a minus-15.2 defensive EPA against the Steelers in Week 1. The 2007 team never had a performance that bad. The 16-0 Patriots allowed only 621 yards through their first three games. The current team has allowed 1,106. Yes, a weaker defense could be what trips up this Patriots team, but the schedule is looking entirely manageable.
The Jets, Miami, Washington, Buffalo, Philadelphia and Tennessee must visit Gillette Stadium. It will be a major upset if any of those teams leave with a victory. The road schedule features games against Dallas, Indy, the New York Giants, Denver, Houston, the Jets and Miami. That looks tougher on paper than it actually is.
Tony Romo will not play for the Cowboys, and pass-rusher Greg Hardy likely won't be up to speed in his first game back from a four-game suspension. As for the Patriots losing at Indianapolis after the Colts snitched on New England over ball deflation? Yeah, it could happen, but I'm more inclined to think the Patriots will play their best game there. The Week 12 game at Denver could come down to how well Peyton Manning holds up and whether the Broncos can generate more of a ground game to help him out. Denver might have the NFL's best defense this season, but Brady has outplayed the best defenses he has faced.
Check out Brady's regular-season and playoff numbers since the start of the 2014 season against the NFL's 10 best defenses over that span, measured by EPA and ranked without including those teams' performances against New England:
270 of 406 passing (66.5 percent)
26 touchdowns
10 interceptions
12 sacks
98.6 passer rating
76.6 Total QBR
The Patriots are 8-2 in those games, with one of the losses coming against Buffalo in Week 17 last season, when New England pulled Brady and other key players to rest them for the playoffs. The other loss was at Kansas City in Week 4 last season, right before Gronkowski hit his stride and when the Patriots' offensive line appeared to be in disarray.
The odds are obviously against any team going 16-0, but this New England offense is looking good enough for the Patriots to make a serious run at it.