The NFL is supposed to be the league of parity, but for the past few seasons, the AFC has been anything but. Seven different AFC teams have missed the playoffs for at least five straight years. Three different AFC teams have missed the playoffs for at least 10 straight years. But it looks like one of those streaks is going to come to an end in 2016.
Sunday night was easily Oakland's most impressive win this season, and it moved the Raiders into first place in the AFC West at 7-2. The win significantly improves their odds of making the playoffs and their odds of a high seed that will help them go far into the postseason. First, we give them better odds now because they look better according to Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings (they weren't even in the top 10 before this win). Second, the win knocked Denver down to where the Broncos are now more likely to win a wild card than the division. Third, another AFC West win will be important if the Raiders end up tied for first place with the Kansas City Chiefs.
This week, the Raiders make it to the playoffs in 85.9 percent of our simulations. Only four teams have better playoff odds (New England, Dallas, Atlanta, and Seattle). The Raiders' odds of making it to Super Bowl LI moved from 8.0 percent to 14.8 percent, while their odds of winning the whole thing for the first time since the 1983 season nearly doubled, from 3.3 percent to 6.4 percent.
The other teams with double-digit streaks of missing the playoffs aren't doing as well as the Raiders. The Buffalo Bills have watched their playoff odds sink below 20 percent with three straight losses, while the Cleveland Browns ... uh ... have fans who can still celebrate an NBA title.
You'll find our playoff odds for all 32 teams below. For a full explanation on how we calculate each team's odds, see the bottom of the article.
AFC PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
FAVORITES
1. New England Patriots (7-1)
Odds of making playoffs: 99.2 percent
Sunday night's New England-Seattle game has almost no impact on who makes the playoffs because these teams are so far ahead in their divisions and this game has no impact on seeding tiebreakers. The Seahawks' playoff odds only drop to 88 percent if they lose to the Patriots, while New England still wins the AFC's No. 1 seed more than half the time in simulations where it loses to Seattle. And the Patriots would still be Super Bowl favorites with a loss, winning it all 26.1 percent of the time when they lose to Seattle and 28.2 percent of the time when they beat Seattle.
2. Oakland Raiders (7-2)
Odds of making playoffs: 85.9 percent
One of the big reasons for Oakland's strong season is the offensive line, which has allowed the fewest sacks in the NFL. The Raiders are No. 1 with a 3.4 percent adjusted sack rate, with no other offense below 4 percent.
3. Kansas City Chiefs (6-2)
Odds of making playoffs: 71.9 percent
The Chiefs are the forgotten team of the AFC West, but we're about to be hearing a lot more from them. Kansas City wins the division in 33.3 percent of this week's simulations, and a wild card in 38.6 percent of simulations. Alex Smith will return Sunday after only missing one game, and Justin Houston could finally come back this week. Down the stretch, the Chiefs have three big division games in the national spotlight: Week 12 at Denver as the main game in the late window, Week 14 against Oakland at home on a Thursday night, and Week 16 hosting Denver on a Sunday night.
4. Denver Broncos (6-3)
Odds of making playoffs: 66.8 percent
This past week's loss to the Raiders knocked the Broncos down in our playoff odds more than any other team, but they still make the postseason in two-thirds of simulations. In fact, they are the AFC West's top team according to DVOA ratings, ranking sixth overall. Oakland is ninth, Kansas City 11th, and San Diego 13th. That means we still have them with a reasonable chance of repeating as Super Bowl champions, currently sixth in the NFL at 5.2 percent.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-4)
Odds of making playoffs: 45.6 percent
The biggest difference now in the AFC North race is the remaining schedule. Pittsburgh's remaining slate of opponents ranks 27th and Cincinnati's is 25th, while Baltimore's schedule ranks fifth. They still have Cleveland on the schedule twice, and that's the main reason they're still the favorite to win the AFC North.
6. Houston Texans (5-3)
Odds of making playoffs: 41.2 percent
As bad as the AFC North is, the AFC South is even worse. The Texans have somehow won five games despite ranking 30th in the NFL in DVOA. Since DVOA began in 1989, no team with a winning record at midseason has ever rated worse than the 2016 Texans.
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7. Cincinnati Bengals (3-4-1)
Odds of making playoffs: 32.2 percent
Baltimore's win over Pittsburgh boosted the Bengals' playoff chances by 6.1 percent, almost as much as the win boosted the Ravens' playoff chances (6.9 percent). The division title is the only likely path to the playoffs for these three teams, as the AFC North gets a wild-card team in less than 7 percent of simulations.
8. Baltimore Ravens (4-4)
Odds of making playoffs: 29.0 percent
Baltimore's win over Pittsburgh certainly didn't come with very much offense other than Joe Flacco's 95-yard touchdown pass to Mike Wallace. The Ravens averaged just 3.1 yards on their other plays, and they've now dropped below the Rams and Texans to rank as the worst offense in the NFL according to DVOA. This team is entirely being carried by its defense (fifth) and special teams (ninth).
9. Indianapolis Colts (4-5)
Odds of making playoffs: 28.7 percent
Houston has the best record in the AFC South, and Tennessee has the best DVOA rating, but Indianapolis has the easiest remaining schedule in the division. The Colts' average DVOA of remaining opponents ranks 30th, plus four of their last seven games are at home. Two of the better teams on Indy's remaining schedule, Minnesota and Pittsburgh, certainly don't look as dangerous as they did a couple weeks ago.
10. Miami Dolphins (4-4)
Odds of making playoffs: 27.1 percent
Four games into the season, Miami ranked 28th in DVOA and had a 3.8 percent chance of making the playoffs. Over the last four weeks -- a loss to Tennessee that was closer than it looked, then a three-game winning streak -- the Dolphins have risen to 12th in DVOA with a 27.1 percent chance of making the playoffs. This week is huge for Miami because the AFC wild-card race is basically down to the Dolphins, the Bills and whoever doesn't win the AFC West. Miami beating San Diego would essentially knock out one of those competitors.
11. Tennessee Titans (4-5)
Odds of making playoffs: 25.5 percent
Whatever their other issues, the Titans have excelled when it comes to short-yardage runs. The offense has converted 79 percent of these runs (third in the NFL) while the defense has only allowed 53 percent conversions (fourth in the NFL).
12. San Diego Chargers (4-5)
Odds of making playoffs: 20.1 percent
A loss to Miami would be an almost-fatal blow to San Diego's playoff hopes, dropping them to around 6 percent. And the Dolphins offense is a particularly hard one for the Chargers to stop, as San Diego ranks fifth in pass defense DVOA but 19th in run defense.
13. Buffalo Bills (4-5)
Odds of making playoffs: 18.0 percent
The Bills still rank 10th in DVOA despite a three-game losing streak, and they have the easiest remaining schedule in the league.
LONG SHOTS
14. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6)
Odds of making playoffs: 8.7 percent
Odds of getting No. 1 pick: 1.1 percent. Odds of getting Top 3 pick: 18.9 percent.
15. New York Jets (3-6)
Odds of making playoffs: 0.2 percent
Odds of getting No. 1 pick: 2.0 percent. Odds of getting Top 3 pick: 39.2 percent.
16. Cleveland Browns (0-9)
Odds of making playoffs: 0.01 percent
Still not out of it! The Browns win the AFC North in five of our 50,000 simulations.
Odds of getting No. 1 pick: 70.1 percent. Odds of getting Top 3 pick: 96.6 percent.
NFC PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
FAVORITES
1. Dallas Cowboys (7-1)
Odds of making playoffs: 96.9 percent
The Cowboys get out to early leads with strong offense, then their unsung defense gets surprisingly strong after halftime. In the first half of games, Dallas ranks first in offensive DVOA but 28th on defense. After halftime, they are 10th in offensive DVOA and improve to sixth on defense.
2. Atlanta Falcons (6-3)
Odds of making playoffs: 91.5 percent
One of the weaknesses the Falcons need to watch out for: The defense gets weaker the closer the opponent gets to the goal line. When the opposing offenses are stuck behind the 20s, Atlanta ranks fourth in defensive DVOA. Between the 20 and the 40, they rank 11th. Between the 40s, they rank 20th. From their own 40 to their own 20, they rank 29th. And when opponents are in the red zone, the Falcons' defense ranks 31st, ahead of only Cleveland.
3. Seattle Seahawks (5-2-1)
Odds of making playoffs: 91.1 percent
The Seahawks may be third in the NFC in overall playoff odds, but thanks in part to the difficult schedule faced by Arizona over the last half of the season, they have the best odds of winning their division at 88.5 percent.
4. Minnesota Vikings (5-3)
Odds of making playoffs: 64.0 percent
Minnesota's playoff odds have dropped more than 30 percent during this three-game losing streak, but Green Bay's last two losses have kept the Vikings' odds from falling any further. Another loss (Minnesota plays Washington on Sunday) would drop the Vikings' odds close to 50-50.
5. New York Giants (5-3)
Odds of making playoffs: 51.9 percent
This win was huge for the Giants, as their playoff odds went up more than any other team's this week, from 33.2 percent to 51.9 percent. The struggles of the NFC North teams have really increased the chances that the NFC East will send three teams to the postseason. Every NFC East team (including Dallas) now wins a wild card in at least 15 percent of simulations, while the other 12 NFC teams each win a wild card in fewer than 15 percent of simulations.
6. Philadelphia Eagles (4-4)
Odds of making playoffs: 51.9 percent
The Eagles are far better than their record shows. They have outscored opponents by 59 points total, and each of their four losses have come by a touchdown or less. They lead the NFL in both defense and special teams according to DVOA. Unfortunately, they also lead the NFL in hardest remaining schedule, but they still win a wild card in 45.8 percent of simulations this week, more than any other team in the NFL.
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7. Green Bay Packers (4-4)
Odds of making playoffs: 37.0 percent
A few plays make a big difference in an NFL season that's just 16 games long, and two losses by a combined six points have dropped the Packers' playoff odds from 62 percent to 37 percent. The run-heavy Titans make for an interesting matchup Sunday against the Green Bay defense, which is 16th in DVOA against the pass but sixth against the run.
8. Washington Redskins (4-3-1)
Odds of making playoffs: 30.2 percent
Minnesota-Washington is a game that matches a movable object against a resistible force. The Vikings rank 31st in run offense DVOA, but the Redskins rank 31st in run defense DVOA.
9. New Orleans Saints (4-4)
Odds of making playoffs: 25.7 percent
It's not unrealistic to imagine that the Saints can ride their running game to a win over Denver this week, dominating the Broncos in the trenches. New Orleans now ranks first in the NFL in adjusted line yards, while the Broncos rank just 23rd in adjusted line yards on defense.
10. Detroit Lions (5-4)
Odds of making playoffs: 24.4 percent
Every single Lions game this season has come down to a difference of a touchdown or less, but the DVOA ratings are generally pessimistic about their efficiency in the future, ranking them 27th overall and dead last on defense. That's why we give them lower odds of making the playoffs than the Packers, even though the Lions passed Green Bay in the standings this week.
11. Arizona Cardinals (3-4-1)
Odds of making playoffs: 15.3 percent
A win over San Francisco on Sunday only raises Arizona's playoff odds to 18.8 percent, mainly because the current playoff odds already assume the Cardinals will probably beat the 49ers at home.
LONG SHOTS
12. Chicago Bears (2-6)
Odds of making playoffs: 7.8 percent
Odds of getting No. 1 pick: 0.7 percent. Odds of getting Top 3 pick: 12.3 percent.
13. Los Angeles Rams (3-5)
Odds of making playoffs: 5.2 percent
Odds of (Tennessee) getting No. 1 pick: 0.6 percent. Odds of (Tennessee) getting Top 3 pick: 13.2 percent.
14. Carolina Panthers (3-5)
Odds of making playoffs: 3.7 percent
Odds of getting No. 1 pick: 0.2 percent. Odds of getting Top 3 pick: 8.3 percent.
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5)
Odds of making playoffs: 3.4 percent
Odds of getting No. 1 pick: 0.2 percent. Odds of getting Top 3 pick: 10.4 percent.
16. San Francisco 49ers (1-6)
Odds of making playoffs: 0.3 percent
Odds of getting No. 1 pick: 24.8 percent. Odds of getting Top 3 pick: 83.5 percent.
Biggest games of Week 10
Each week, we'll look at which games in the coming week will have the biggest effect on playoff odds. This is based solely on wins and losses and doesn't account for how much the results would affect each team's rating. "Swing" is the difference between a team's odds with a win compared to a loss. For example, Miami makes the playoffs in 45.5 percent of simulations where it beats San Diego this week, but only 12.5 percent of simulations where it loses, for a 33 percent swing.
1) Miami (33.0% swing) at San Diego (25.5% swing)
2) Minnesota (25.9% swing) at Washington (25.2% swing)
3) Cincinnati (21.7% swing) at New York Giants (25.9% swing)
4) Green Bay (23.3% swing) at Tennessee (18.4% swing)
5) Houston (30.0% swing) at Jacksonville (11.3% swing)
Methodology
The odds listed here come from a weekly Football Outsiders playoff odds simulation that plays out the rest of the season 50,000 times. Based on our ratings and home-field advantage, a random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. Early in the season, these probabilities are based on a combination of Football Outsiders' preseason projections and weighted DVOA. (DVOA is Football Outsiders' proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average metric which looks at a team's performance on every play and adjusts based on situation and opponent, explained further here. Weighted DVOA lowers the value of games from more than two months ago to get a better picture of how teams are playing right now.) New England's rating is adjusted based on the offensive performance since Tom Brady's return from suspension.
You can find the full playoff odds report, including the odds of each team winning each of the six seeds and the Super Bowl, on FootballOutsiders.com. Note that our odds will be different than playoff odds you might find elsewhere on ESPN.com (or at FiveThirtyEight.com) because each set of team ratings is computed differently.