KANSAS CITY, Mo. -- Bill Belichick ranked No. 1 in our Head Coach Tiers ranking of the 32 NFL head coaches last month, a project for which we had eight general managers, four former GMs, four personnel directors, four executives, six coordinators and four position coaches rate every coach in the league. He'll have to do his best coaching job yet to overcome the talent issues Belichick the general manager has created for the New England Patriots in 2014.
It's never been much of an issue in New England, because the team almost always improves and contends. That could happen again, but the Patriots' embarrassing 41-14 defeat to the Kansas City Chiefs on "Monday Night Football" showed just how small the Patriots' margin for error has become.
These Patriots barely beat winless Oakland in Foxborough eight days before the Raiders fired their coach. New England has now lost by 13-plus points twice in four games this season after suffering just one defeat by a margin that wide over the previous three seasons.
While the Chiefs' Andy Reid won the coaching battle at Arrowhead Stadium through the successful deployment of unusual formations and design of plays, that isn't the big story for New England. Squandering quarterback Tom Brady's final few seasons will become the big story if what we saw Monday night is truly representative.
The Patriots will eventually be fine on offense, or so went the thinking after Brady averaged just 5.5 yards per pass attempt through three games this season. His numbers were virtually the same through three games in 2013, but that situation was understandable. Wes Welker had left in free agency, Aaron Hernandez was suddenly facing murder charges and Rob Gronkowski was recovering from injury. Those factors made it nearly impossible for the offense to function, but Brady persevered and wound up regaining past form over the second half of the season. He ranked 18th in Total QBR over the first eight games and fourth over the final eight games. Brady was back.
The way New England righted itself last season must inform any analysis of what might happen next. Writing off the Patriots following a 2-2 start would make little sense, but that does not mean Belichick should get a pass on how this team has been put together. The defense clearly has talent and will play better than it did against the Chiefs. The offense is another story.
Before the game, I put together a list of the 21 offensive players Belichick has drafted over the past five years. Aaron Dobson, Taylor Price, Josh Boyce, Jeremy Ebert and Jeremy Gallon were the wide receivers. Dobson was healthy but inactive Monday night. Price is long gone. The others were either drafted too recently or too late to factor in at this point.
The receivers New England has drafted over the past five years have combined to catch 52 passes for 727 yards and four touchdowns in 27 games with the Patriots. No team in the league has gotten fewer games or receptions from the receivers it has drafted since 2010. The Patriots have gotten the second-fewest yards (727) and second-fewest receiving touchdowns (four) from their drafted wideouts over that span.
Those figures wouldn't matter much if the Patriots were set at the position. But when 2009 seventh-rounder Julian Edelman is the most dynamic receiver on the team and the future Hall of Fame quarterback ranks 30th in Total QBR through four games, it's no stretch to say the team could have done more to reinforce the position.
Four of the 21 offensive draft choices since 2010 are regular starters. That list includes Nate Solder, Marcus Cannon, Gronkowski and Stevan Ridley, but only Gronkowski is a building-block player, and only if he can regain top form following yet another injury.
Solder, Gronkowski, Shane Vereen, Dobson, Ridley, Price, Ryan Mallett and Jimmy Garoppolo were the offensive players Belichick has selected in the first three rounds since 2010.
Hernandez should be headlining the offensive players New England has drafted in the middle rounds over those same five drafts, but he's in jail. That leaves Boyce, Bryan Stork, James White, Cannon, Cameron Fleming and Lee Smith as the offensive players New England has drafted in the fourth and fifth rounds. The late-round guys -- Jon Halapio, Ted Larsen, Thomas Welch, Ebert, Gallon and Zac Robinson -- aren't doing the Patriots any good right now.
Some of this happened through misfortune. When Belichick allowed Welker to leave in free agency after the 2012 season, he was betting on Hernandez and Gronkowski to provide Brady with the weapons he needed to succeed. This would be a much different offense and a different Patriots team if those two players were, in the former case, around, and in the latter, functioning near his potential. It can be an improved offense again if and when Gronkowski rounds into form.
I thought the Patriots would be better on offense from the beginning this season, not because of the personnel moves they made, but rather because I figured Belichick would have the offense ready to play after having a full offseason to plan around Hernandez's unexpected departure. Rules limiting practice opportunities are complicating efforts to develop players, but those rules exist for every team in the league.
What now? The Patriots will improve whether or not they win at home against Cincinnati in Week 5, but their personnel shortcomings at the skill positions and along the offensive line are threatening like never before during the Brady-Belichick era. The coach and quarterback can't be too pleased with the GM these days.
Notes
• The Bills' predicament: Buffalo's decision to start veteran Kyle Orton sacrifices EJ Manuel in a short-term move to win this season, or else. The ownership change in Buffalo put decision-makers on notice. The draft-day trade allowing the Bills to select receiver Sammy Watkins looked like a move to better arm Manuel, and it was, but it was also a move to upgrade the roster right now. That move cost the team its 2015 first-round pick, which could compromise efforts to draft a quarterback next year. Who cares when Watkins is highly talented and there might not be a next season for the coach or GM? The team's current leadership has been talking about winning right now. Benching the first-round QB after 14 career starts was the loudest statement yet.
• Should Niners have chosen Smith over Kaepernick? Only recently have I started to think the San Francisco 49ers might have been better off sticking with Alex Smith instead of installing Colin Kaepernick as their starting quarterback in 2012. Smith was poised and in full control of the Chiefs' offense Monday night. Kaepernick has been tentative and out of sorts by comparison. He's much more dynamic at his best and is a threat to dominate every week, but when the 49ers have needed a steady and reliable hand, Kaepernick has let them down recently. This could just be a hiccup for Kaepernick. Whatever the case, the Chiefs visit the 49ers in Week 5 having a better idea what they're going to get from their QB on a weekly basis.
• Raiders' four-game plan: The day ESPN.com handed the Oakland Raiders an "F" grade for their handling of free agency happened to be the day a league contact invited me to dinner with a certain NFL head coach. The coach was Dennis Allen of the Raiders, whom I did not know, and in the interests of comfortable conversation, I was hoping his Insider subscription had lapsed. The subject never came up. Allen had a positive outlook regarding the upcoming season. That outlook surely improved when the team landed Derek Carr in the draft. But anyone watching how the Raiders put together their roster this season knew Vince Lombardi would have been in trouble if asked to coach this team.
Allen, fired Monday following an 0-4 start, went into this season with the oldest roster in the league. The Raiders had ranked 18th in that category a year earlier. They then got older by design. This Raiders team failed to keep their top free agents (Jared Veldheer, Lamarr Houston) and instead loaded up on declining veterans. In the NFL, old plus bad equals fired.