HorseplayerPro: Nose to Nose

It's the world of instant messaging, and we're horse-playing in it. This week, clocker Donald Harris and Arlington line maker Joe Kristufek samba in cyberspace.

Thursday, May 1

DaKAttack: what's your take (on the filly Eight Belles)?
TheDon: Beaten up on weaker, and done it against small fields
TheDon: I'm sexist this year
DaKAttack: But the speed figure guys say she fits, the 'figs' NEVER LIE
TheDon: I'm in the group that uses speed figures to line the litter box
DaKAttack: So you're telling me Eight Belles has no shot, I shouldn't even give her a second thought in my High Five
TheDon: I won't go that far, but if she wins, I lose
TheDon: She won't be in my high five
DaKAttack: Ok, well, I just got done reading Chris Forde's column , he says the Derby is a 'Muddled Field' and basically says that anything can happen
DaKAttack: I disagree, I think there are only three horses who can win this thing
TheDon: Break it down
DaKAttack: Colonel John -- Pyro -- Big Brown
TheDon: So that means your tune on Big Brown has change ... because he made the race?
DaKAttack: Just about any of the others can hit the board, but only one of those three will be dressed in Roses
DaKAttack: Yeah, songs get old fast for me, I always have new stuff in my rotation
TheDon: I hear you ... it's the ability to adjust that separates the people cashing from those adding to the recycling bin
DaKAttack: Did I say a few weeks ago on my HorseplayerPRO blog that 'Big Brown will not hit the board in the Derby'
DaKAttack: Oh yeah, I did
DaKAttack: I still think betting the race that way is the right way to go
TheDon: Here's a question ...
TheDon: What's more important:
TheDon: Betting the most talented horse and hoping he gets the right trip or
TheDon: Betting a horse that you think is going to sit the right trip at the right price ... maybe not quite as talented
DaKAttack: There are two key components to handicapping, and eventually stepping up to the plate to bet
DaKAttack: A) visualize the race before it happens
DaKAttack: B) based on that visualization, construct tickets that provide value and maximize your opportunity to profit
TheDon: Hold on ... I'm polishing my crystal ball
TheDon: it's had some cracks in it the last few years during this time
DaKAttack: Ummm, sounds like a personal problem
DaKAttack: I suggest you see a doctor
TheDon: I'm speechless ... why did I not see that setup in my crystal ball, perhaps turning it on will help, Ok, here we go
TheDon: Two superfectas
TheDon: Big Brown with Court Vision, Pyro, 'Colonel,' Smooth Air and Big Truck with all with all
TheDon: And one super where I toss the big guy and box the other five
DaKAttack: Interesting
DaKAttack: So you think he SHOULD win, but you're almost hoping he's not
DaKAttack: You should start a horse racing hedge fund!
TheDon: Ouch
TheDon: Hedge funds can make a serious rate of return
DaKAttack: No doubt
DaKAttack: But you're a Cali guy, why aren't you driving the Colonel John bandwagon?
TheDon: I get a bad feeling he is going to run into some serious 405 traffic issues
DaKAttack: Wow, that crystal ball of yours foresees traffic too?
DaKAttack: Where do I get one of those?
TheDon: Paid advertising shows, it's the latest craze since the Ginsu
TheDon: Or you can go to Walmart
DaKAttack: Ok, but if the colonel gets a fair trip, you do think he's good enough to win it
TheDon: Absolutely
DaKAttack: I'm just mad Pyro's going to be a bigger price on Saturday than what I have in the future pools
TheDon: Bummer
DaKAttack: The money's still green
TheDon: Our boy Timmy T is sitting on a gold mine with his future on Big Brown
TheDon: Must be nice
DaKAttack: Yeah, I know a few people that have him at 150-1 in Vegas
DaKAttack: But it's only 'nice' if he wins
DaKAttack: I had Buddha at 100-1 a few years ago, and that didn't work out so well
TheDon: I threw some money down on Georgie Boy ...
TheDon: What a tough road
DaKAttack: But that road finally ends Saturday ...
TheDon: Top three - Big Brown, Court Vision, Smooth Air
DaKAttack: Big Brown makes sense
DaKAttack: Court Vision, blinkers on, headed in the right direction, could fire big time
DaKAttack: Smooth Air?
TheDon: I knew that was coming
DaKAttack: That crystal ball short circuiting?
TheDon: How dare you ... the crystal ball shows me ... you ... tearing up lots of tickets
DaKAttack: Hope Walmart has an exchange policy
TheDon: I just use duct tape when it's not working
DaKAttack: Duct tape works for everything!
DaKAttack: Ok, why smooth air, oh masterful wizard?
DaKAttack: You like those Florida preps, huh?
TheDon: I actually liked his second when Big Brown ran off the screen
TheDon: He made a nice move into the blistering pace on the turn ... was no match. ... but stuck to his task
DaKAttack: but he was 'sick' last week and was a question mark for the race
TheDon: That will definitely help the price
DaKAttack: You're around horses all the time, does that make any difference, or is it overblown?
TheDon: It depends on how sick?
DaKAttack: Well, I can tell you this
DaKAttack: And I'm not trying to compare myself to a horse
DaKAttack: But
DaKAttack: When I get over feeling sick and start to feel better, I'm ready to run through a brick wall
DaKAttack: Maybe he guzzled down some Airbourne
DaKAttack: Look in your crystal ball and tell me
TheDon: I think they have stronger stuff than that now
DaKAttack: Nice
DaKAttack: Ok
DaKAttack: Well
DaKAttack: Trust me
DaKAttack: I'm not accused of being a 'chalk-eating weasel' too often
DaKAttack: But
DaKAttack: Colonel John -- Pyro -- Big Brown
DaKAttack: Yes, Big Brown third
DaKAttack: I'm hedging!
TheDon: According to my ball ... it's just too logical
DaKAttack: This is the year the Derby IS logical
DaKAttack: You can't out think yourself
TheDon: It wouldn't be tough.

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