So what can we expect from a betting standpoint for Thursday night's game?
Betting analysts Tyler Fulghum, Eric Moody, Anita Marks, Seth Walder and Al Zeidenfeld are here to provide their thoughts.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated.
This is only the third time in the past 30 years that Detroit has been favored at Green Bay. Christian Watson is expected to play for the Packers, and there's optimism that Aaron Jones may as well. Which way are you going in this one?
Moody: Packers. Given that the Vikings and Bears are both having poor seasons, this game is extremely important since the Packers and Lions will be battling for control of the NFC North. Green Bay will have home-field advantage. Last season, the Packers were 4-2 against the spread as underdogs of 1 point or more. Jared Goff is a completely different quarterback away from Ford Field. Since 2022, he has averaged 276.2 passing yards per game and thrown 27 touchdowns to five interceptions at home. On the road over that same time frame, Goff has averaged 246.6 passing yards per game and thrown seven touchdowns to four interceptions. Considering the narrow spread, I recommend backing the Packers.
Fulghum: I like the Packers as the home underdog in this spot. Not only are they getting reinforcements for their offense -- which is being quarterbacked very capably through three weeks by Jordan Love -- but the biggest reason I like Green Bay at home is due to the home/road splits of Goff. In 2022, the former No. 1 overall pick threw 23 of his 29 TD passes at Ford Field. In 2021, 13 of 19 TD passes came at home.
Walder: Three's company: I'm on the Packers, too. What sold me is this chart from Tom Bliss of the NFL's analytics group, which measures various forms of luck and found that the Lions have been the luckiest team in the league by the measures tracked. The driver of the Lions' luck? Opponents dropping their passes. That's added the equivalent of a third of a win to the Lions this year -- pretty huge in a three-game sample!
Marks: Lions. But ... I'd wait to place the bet because I believe the line will get better once the news that Aaron Jones and Christian Watson are confirmed to play. Who knows, maybe this line jumps to +1.5. The Packers offensive line injuries are a huge concern, against a Lions defense that has been very impressive, especially against the rush (2.2 YPC). They held the Falcons to 44 rushing yards last week, with 11 tackles for a loss. The Lions hope to get David Montgomery back this week, adding to their more balanced offense.
Jordan Love (7 TD/1 INT) just led the Packers to a big comeback win in Week 3, but his 53.1 completion percentage ranks second-to-last in the NFL (ahead of only Zach Wilson). How do you look at Love from a betting standpoint?
Zeidenfeld: I'm buying that Love needs to grow into the role, but also am squarely on the side that his early season performance through the first three weeks is extremely promising considering he was missing his best offensive weapon in Aaron Jones for two of the three games, his Alpha wide receiver for all three games on top of the Packers best offensive lineman being out. He's had to do a lot with the absolute least, but the public is making decisions on his descriptive stats based on the numbers he's put up without his biggest difference-makers at every level and there may be value leading up to kickoff on his overs to be had both for this game and rest of season.
Walder: Love's low completion percentage is partially driven by his league-leading 10.1 average depth of target. That's not to say there's not some blame for him though. His -10% completion percentage over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats, is worst in the NFL. Part of that might be driven by his receivers (who have a high 5% drop rate) but it's still a concern. Ultimately I view Love as a quarterback that will take shots downfield, but also a player that may have accuracy issues.
Marks: Love over 231.5 passing yards. Even though he is only connecting on 53% of his passes on the season, his volume of pass attempts will get him over this number. The Lions' pass defense is allowing an average of 250 passing yards per game. Considering how good the Lions rush defense is, the Packers will have to fling it to move the chains.
Amon-Ra St. Brown's receiving yards prop is set at 72.5. The third-year wideout has eclipsed 100 yards in each of the past two games, but was held under 50 yards in both games against Green Bay last season. Do you like St. Brown to hit the OVER in this prop?
Fulghum: I do not. The Lions passing game takes a significant hit as a whole when on the road as opposed to Ford Field. I'm fading Goff in this spot, which means I'm also on a fade of his top WR. St. Brown has also been dealing with a small toe injury, which adds to my skepticism in this spot.
Zeidenfeld: Give me the under on this one playing on Jared Goff's drastic home/road and dome/outdoor splits. St. Brown's production is obviously tied to that of his quarterback and I have a hunch this game could come down to bully ball on offense and play a bit slower as a result.
Is there anything else you are playing on Thursday?
Moody: Sam LaPorta over 4.5 receptions. This is one prop bet at plus odds that I'm drawn to like a moth the flame. This season, LaPorta has played a lot of snaps and run a lot of routes. He's also surpassed 4.5 receptions in three consecutive games. With 22 targets LaPorta is actively involved in the Lions passing game. Against the Packers on Thursday night, this trend will continue.
Moody: Jayden Reed over 36.5 receiving yards and TD scorer. I like the prop bet regardless of whether Watson plays on Thursday night, as he has missed the first three games because of a hamstring injury. Reed's 148 receiving yards lead the Packers, while his 20 targets are tied with Romeo Doubs. Although the Lions' defense has played with an increased sense of urgency this season, they still allowed the third most passing yards per game last year. When targeting Reed, Love has a passer rating of 115. Bettors may also want to consider betting on Reed to score a touchdown (+225). Through three games, Reed is tied with Tyreek Hill for the most wide receiver red zone targets.
Fulghum: Lions Team Total UNDER 23.5. This play correlates with my thoughts on the Lions passing attack and Goff. I buy into the compelling home/road splits from his time in Detroit. Green Bay has a capable defense and a very good home field advantage. Plus, with the return of Jones and Watson they may be able to hold on to the ball a bit longer for more sustained drives.
Walder: Kenny Clark under 0.75 sacks (-190). By my numbers, this is a great price. Yes, Clark has at least half a sack in every game this year, but he still went under this line in two of the three contests. More important, however, is that one of Goff's strengths is sack avoidance, with just a 2.8% sack rate this year. I make the fair price here -367, a far cry from the -190 we're paying here.