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          Giant Killers Blog

          10 strongest Giant Killer candidates

          If they get past the First Four, Tyler Haws and BYU could be a big threat to Xavier. George Frey/Getty Images
          • Peter Keating
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            Peter Keating
            ESPN Senior Writer
              Peter Keating is a senior writer at ESPN The Magazine, where he covers investigative and statistical subjects. His column, The Numbers, appears in every issue.
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          • Jordan Brenner
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            Jordan Brenner
            ESPN The Magazine contributing writer
              Brenner writes for ESPN The Magazine and ESPN Insider. He covers the NBA and college basketball.
          Mar 15, 2015, 08:12 PM ET

          The gears are grinding here in GK Central, as we have started the process of mining our statistical model for every piece of upset-related info you could possibly want before Thursday. We will have detailed regional breakdowns for you on Monday and Tuesday, but first we wanted to share some quick initial thoughts, and to pass along our annual list of the top-10 potential upsets in the Round of 64.

          It’s not a great year for Killers, as several of our model’s favorite teams, such as Central Michigan, Eastern Kentucky and Illinois State, lost in their conference tournaments. And the NCAA selection committee didn’t do underdogs any favors, either. Our model’s top two Giant Killers -- VCU and Ohio State -- will face each other in a 7-10 game. The only upside there is that we’re guaranteed a chance to see an excellent Giant Killer face Arizona in the Round of 32.

          Another scenario that really stings? In the Midwest, one of our better Killers, Buffalo, ended up with a 12-seed, where the Buffalo will face West Virginia, a remarkably safe Giant. Our model gives the Bulls just a 9.4 percent change of winning. Oddly, Buffalo would have been better off with a 13-seed, as our model sees Maryland as exceptionally vulnerable. That game essentially would have been a toss-up, as Buffalo would have registered a 48.5 percent chance of recording an upset. Oh, well.

          Still, there are potential upsets looming in the opening round. And in addition to the winner of VCU/Ohio State against Arizona, some seriously dangerous Round of 32 matchups could materialize—games like Kansas vs. Wichita State, or Gonzaga vs. Davidson. For now, though, chew on our list of the top 10 Giants most likely to be upset in the Round of 64. And be sure to tune into ESPN on Monday at 3 p.m. for the inaugural Giant Killers TV extravaganza. We’re about to become TV stars, baby. If our model had a small, paper bag, it would vomit.

            1. No. 6 Xavier Musketeers: 51.0 percent chance to lose vs. No. 11 BYU Cougars, or 38.9 percent vs. No. 11 Ole Miss Rebels

            2. No. 6 Butler Bulldogs 37.8 percent vs. No. 11 Texas Longhorns

            3. No. 5 Utah Utes 37.6 percent vs. No. 12 Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks

            4. No. 6 Providence Friars 37.3 percent vs. No. 11 Boise State Broncos or 27.4 percent vs. No. 11 Dayton Flyers

            5. No. 5 Northern Iowa Panthers 33.5 percent vs. No. 12 Wyoming Cowboys

            6. No. 4 Maryland Terrapins 31.2 percent vs. No. 13 Valparaiso Crusaders

            7. No. 6 SMU Mustangs 24.0 percent vs. No. 11 UCLA Bruins

            8. No. 4 Georgetown Hoyas 15.3 percent vs. No. 13 Eastern Washington Eagles

            9. No. 3 Oklahoma Sooners 13.2 percent vs. No. 14 Albany Great Danes

            10. No. 3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 11.8 percent vs. Northeastern Huskies