It’s worth documenting, again, all that Ervin Santana did well last year:
• Only 24 starting pitchers who qualified for the ERA title posted a lower number than his 3.24.
• Only 19 pitchers had a lower WHIP.
• His strikeout-walk ratio of 3.16 ranked 35th in the majors.
• Santana held opposing hitters to a .668 OPS, ranking 27th.
• He pitched 211 innings -- only 16 pitchers threw more in 2013.
So he had a really good season, bolstered by his sturdy reputation as being a good guy -- a positive clubhouse presence, someone invested in the esprit de corps.
But with three weeks to go before the Padres and Dodgers play the first game of the season in North America, Santana is still not signed. He is reportedly talking about a one-year deal with the Blue Jays or the Orioles or another team, and if he gets something in the range of $14 million, this will be about $100 million less than what club officials say the initial asking price for him was.
A lot of factors have contributed to him being in this position, from the concerns that some clubs have about whether his elbow will hold up through a multiyear deal, the fact that he’s tied to draft-pick compensation, and the reality that 17 months ago, the regard for Santana was so compromised that he was nearly non-tendered by the Angels.
But the essential truth is that his side completely misread the market, setting a price way too high at the outset and then reacting too slowly as available jobs and money evaporated.
The relationship between a player and his representation can be complicated, and in the end, there are almost always multiple versions of conversations and expectations. Sometimes the player can drive the discussion, sometimes it's player’s parents or spouse or most trusted friend, and sometimes it’s the agents. Sometimes it can be the union, depending on how assertive the player and the agent are. And the guess here is that whoever actually generated and drove the idea of Santana as a $112 million player isn’t going to jump up and down and brag about it today.
The fact is that nobody who takes a paycheck from a team saw Santana as a $100 million-plus pitcher. Nobody. The fact is that Santana should’ve gotten more than what he's expected to receive now, at least comfortably slotting into the group of pitchers like Ricky Nolasco, Matt Garza and Edwin Jackson. Those are pitchers who have been good but have never been elite, as Clayton Kershaw, CC Sabathia, Justin Verlander and Cliff Lee have been.
The Royals wanted him back, but after their overtures in September were rebuffed, they took their available dollars and invested $32 million in Jason Vargas, who has never posted an ERA within half a run of what Santana did last year. Other teams checked in on Santana during the offseason, heard the asking price and moved on; when some doubled back, the numbers still hadn’t come down enough to coax an offer.
Speaking generally to USA Today, Brewers general manager Doug Melvin explained how the high price tags can affect interest. From Bob Nightengale’s piece:
Several GMs and executives say maybe it's time for these players to look in the mirror. They all rejected the $14.1 million qualifying offers from their original teams, and when they hit the market, some of the rumored contract requests scared teams.
"I do see these numbers that come out early that say, 'Oh, he's going to get $100 million,'" Brewers GM Doug Melvin says. "You read that stuff, and then you say, well, there's no sense in me even making a phone call if those are the numbers."
All agents want to push the numbers as high as they can, but some say privately that it is absolutely crucial to be tethered to an understanding of how the player is perceived in the market. One high-ranking executive said Friday that he is asked by agents all the time to offer assessments of what a fair deal for their clients would be -- like Rick Harrison from the TV show "Pawn Stars," who will call in an expert for an opinion before negotiating a price.
In the case of Santana, there was a total disconnect between the asking price and how the industry viewed him from the outset of the offseason.
Because of this, somebody is going to get him for a good price. The Orioles have prospered late in this offseason because of how the market has played out, landing Ubaldo Jimenez for a deal right in the Jackson/Nolasco range of $50 million for four years, and signing Nelson Cruz to a one-year, $8 million deal. Maybe they’ll get Santana, too. The Blue Jays -- whose two first-round picks are protected -- have waited patiently and could land Santana in a good value deal; as the saying in the industry goes, there is no such thing as a bad one-year contract.
If Santana’s elbow blows out in 2014, well, the team that signs him won’t have a long-term obligation. If he regresses to his 2012 form, when he had a 5.16 ERA for the Angels, then any team that signed him to a one-year deal could just let him go in the fall. If he has another strong season, well, then his next club can just give him a qualifying offer.
Regardless of what the final number is, or who is at fault, exactly, it should’ve turned out better for him.
Ken Fidlin wonders: Is Santana what the Blue Jays need? As of today, Drew Hutchison appears to be the front-runner for the No. 5 spot in the Toronto rotation (in lieu of Santana), writes John Lott.
For the Orioles, anything now seems possible, writes Peter Schmuck.
Just a thought: If the Orioles are prepared to sign Santana to a one-year deal -- and surrender their third-round pick -- doesn’t it stand to reason that if they don’t sign Santana, they could go after Kendrys Morales on a one-year deal? Say, for $8 million, just like Cruz?
Think about what the Orioles’ lineup might look like:
1B Chris Davis
CF Adam Jones
DH Morales
LF Cruz
SS J.J. Hardy
Around the league
• Reid Ryan offered an overview of various business challenges facing the Astros. In Evan Drellich’s piece, this was Ryan’s take on the stalled TV situation:
Ryan has worked closely with owner Jim Crane and team counsel Giles Kibbe as Comcast SportsNet Houston’s bankruptcy case has unfolded. Ryan said he has personally tried to explain, when possible, to fans where the team is coming from.
“By the time you sit down and tell somebody, ‘You can sort of have the short term feel-good (outcome) for right now, or you can have the long-term, hey, we’re going to be able to keep these great young players that are coming up and make sure they finish their careers here (outcome), which one do you want?’
“Always people go, ‘Yeah, we really want to keep those players. And then they go ‘Yeah, by the way, we want it on TV right now.’ ... At the end of the day, we’re going to fight the fight all the way to the end, because it’s what’s in the best interest of organization, and it’s what Jim feels like and I feel like gives us the best chance to win and be competitive long term.”
• There was some surprise within the industry that Oliver Perez got a two-year deal with the Diamondbacks, given his history of control issues and his spotty performance against left-handed hitters last season. Perez surrendered just two extra-base hits to lefties in 95 plate appearances, but because of his control issues, they also had a .358 on-base percentage against him, and the question was asked: This late in the winter, who were they bidding against?
• The Rangers had a good day with their pitching from Matt Harrison and Joe Saunders.
• John Henry used Twitter to take a not-so-veiled shot at the Marlins after the complaints from the Marlins about the lineup the Red Sox fielded for an exhibition the other day.
Henry’s ire may well be rooted in the fact that the Marlins have drawn millions and millions of dollars of revenue sharing and pocketed a lot of it, rather than spending it on player acquisition, and now complain about the exhibition lineup of another team.
The Marlins saw no point in firing back, writes Juan Rodriguez.
This runs deep for Henry, writes Michael Silverman.
• Carlos Santana continues to present a quandary for the Indians.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. The "Bad Dude" stepped down as the Mariners’ third-base coach.
2. Matt Carpenter's deal was announced.
3. James Shields is getting the ball on Opening Day.
4. Nick Cafardo wonders whether the Red Sox could get Giancarlo Stanton.
Dings and dents
1. Derek Norris is out with back spasms.
2. The Nationals are not concerned about Doug Fister's elbow.
3. An Angels reliever is experiencing the dreaded forearm tightness.
The games
1. Tim Lincecum has looked really good.
2. Trevor Rosenthal had a strong outing.
3. Justin Upton was the man for the Braves.
4. Taylor Jordan is having a really good showing in Nationals camp.
5. Noah Syndergaard struggled with his control.
6. Kevin Gausman was dominant.
8. Jake Odorizzi is throwing a splitter.
9. Josh Beckett had a tough three innings. Meanwhile, Paul Maholm continues to make his case, writes Steve Dilbeck.
AL West
• Josh Reddick practices robbing home runs.
• The Rangers have poured resources into their effort to develop a franchise catcher, writes Evan Grant.
• Ron Washington wants Leonys Martin to be more conservative on the basepaths.
• Expect Prince Fielder to care, writes Mac Engel.
• Albert Pujols is no fan of fishing for praise.
AL Central
• Nick Castellanos is still adjusting.
• The No. 6 spot in the Detroit lineup seems to suit Austin Jackson.
• Jose Abreu could be the next star from Cuba, writes Paul Sullivan.
• Tom Powers wonders whether Joe Mauer is headed for a big season.
• Phil Hughes is fitting right in with the Twins, writes La Velle Neal.
AL East
• R.A. Dickey hopes to rebound, writes Tyler Kepner.
• The Yankees’ pitching may be better than expected, writes John Harper.
Michael Pineda had a strong day Friday, showing a really good changeup, along with his fastball and slider.
• The prospects look good for the Red Sox.
NL West
• Tim Hudson is excited to bring his family to San Francisco.
• Paul Goldschmidt's defense is gaining more attention, writes Nick Piecoro.
• Wilin Rosario is determined to get better defensively.
• Josh Johnson worked through some bad breaks.
NL Central
• The Brewers are facing a tough decision on who plays second base, writes Tom Haudricourt.
• Jason Grilli pitched in an exhibition.
• The Pirates’ work in the draft may soon pay off, writes Travis Sawchik.
• Francisco Liriano is looking for another good season.
• Brandon Phillips says he’s not talking to the local media.
• Billy Hamilton could revolutionize the game, writes Paul Daugherty.
• The Royals are providing a template for the Cubs.
NL East
• The Phillies are looking thin in their outfield, writes Matt Gelb.
• The Mets are uneasy about a Matt Harvey tweet.
Other stuff
• Ken Griffey Jr. entertained at the Mariners’ camp.
• Peter Magowan talked about the return of Barry Bonds with John Shea.
• Down the road, John Mozeliak could move on to other endeavors.
He would be really good working in the commissioner’s office in some capacity, because he has a way of navigating through the problems posed by others’ disparate personalities by sublimating his own ego.
• The Athletics may seek a temporary stadium.
And today will be better than yesterday.