2020 NFL pass-rushing, run-stopping, blocking leaderboard: Win rate rankings
ESPN Analytics created revolutionary new metrics to measure performance in both the run and pass game. Here are the leaders for the 2020 season.
ESPN's win probability model leaned toward going for it on the Eagles' 4th-and-4, as Doug Pederson did, with 8:40 left in the game. WP go: 7.6% WP kick: 7.0% One thing to remember: if you are down 8 points, you might be down one score. But you also might be down two scores. And that's just to get to a tie.
Darnell Savage Jr. picks Mitchell Trubisky, take two. Dots via Next Gen Stats.
ESPN's win probability model did not agree with Matt Rhule's decision to attempt a field goal on 4th and 3 with 1:54 left in the game. The field goal put the Panthers up 6. WP if they went for it: 92.8% WP by kicking: 90.6% Needed just a 22% conversion chance to justify going for it, league average there is 41%.
This Baker Mayfield incompletion had an 86% chance to be completed for a touchdown, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
Here's the fancy dots view of Brandon Wilson's 103-yard return touchdown. Wilson topped out at just over 21 MPH.
There's no perfect answer for how FPI should handle the Broncos' QB situation. Two options: A: Designate one of the potential emergency QBs the starter, and they will be treated like a rookie QB who has never played before. Effectively replacement level. (Saints 8.2-point favorites). B: Trick the model into thinking Nathan Peterman is the starter because he's considered below replacement, as any emergency QB could will be. (Saints 10.5-point favorites). B felt semi-arbitrary, we chose A.
Deshaun Watson's flea flicker touchdown to Will Fuller, via some fancy dots using Next Gen Stats data.
Remaining strength of schedule rank for NFC East teams, according to FPI: Eagles: 5 Washington: 11 Giants: 22 Cowboys: 26 Despite that, FPI does still consider the Eagles the division favorite at 44%, both because it thinks they are the best of the four teams and because of their half-game lead in the standings.
Ultimately it was moot due to a penalty, but had the Raiders attempted a field goal with 4:41 left in the half on 4th-and-goal from the 1-yard line, ESPN's win probability model would have considered that an egregious error. The Raiders' chance to win would have been 46% if they went for it, and just 40% had they attempted a field goal.
Justin Simmons' interception of Ryan Fitzpatrick in the end zone late in the fourth quarter. Simmons starting moving toward the left side of the field right at the snap. Animation via Next Gen Stats.
Whewwww, Justin Herbert threads the needle to Keenan Allen for the touchdown. Animation via Next Gen Stats.
Derrick Henry literally drew up an L for the Ravens on his game-winning run. Animation via Next Gen Stats.
Following its upset win over Wisconsin, Northwestern now has the best Strength of Record in the country. An average top-25 team would have had a 9% chance to record the 5-0 record that the Wildcats have against they faced. Northwestern is just ahead of Alabama, Notre Dame and Cincinnati, respectively.
NBA draft projections: Best prospects, most overrated and most underrated
Here are our ESPN Sports Analytics projections for the top 100 prospects in the NBA draft.
The Big Ten has the best chance of any conference to put multiple teams in the playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. The Pac-12 has a 35% shot to put a single team in.
The Allstate Playoff Predictor currently gives Northwestern and Indiana just a 3% and 2% chance to reach the playoff, respectively. But that would change quite a bit in the unlikely event both teams win on Saturday.